Tuesday, December 26, 2006

 

An Inconvienient Truth/Ommission

I finally got to watch the Al Gore move An Inconvienient Truth thanks to Sinter Klaus.

Two things troubled me about the movie.
When Gore extrapolated the CO2 emmissions into 2050 and used a scizzor lift to show how high CO2 emmissions would go he did't do the same for the temperatures which was the corresponding line on his graph?

The other conundrum which always seems to get second scrift is the supposed rise in sea level. According to Mr Gores projections, sea level is projected to rise 40 feet in the coming years if we don't stop global warming. Now here is where I'm confused. Since the earth is covered by 75% water and the polar ice caps are probably only in the 1-10% range of that a good part is already sitting in the water so that would negate the rise in water because although ice floats it only floats 10% above water so that amount of melted ice is negated. Then there is the physical property that water expands when frozen so once again less water as compared to what actually appears in glaciers which is compacted snow.

I guess one could do a simple experiment with ice cubes land mass and such to scale to prove the point. Would make for an awesome school experiment.

Don't get me wrong I think we need to address global warming what ever the cause but to have glaring ommissions and underhanded presentations like this doesn't do anything to lend credibility to ones arguement.

There are a multitude of different causes of Global warming proposed out there unfortunately there are only a few which we actually have the means to address. So I guess yes we do need to address CO2 because it is one of the few we can actually address all of the others are out of our control and may end up being our final demise but at least if we address CO2 we can say we tried.

All the rest of the evidence and presentation seems to jive but these two certainly detract from the validity of the entire arguement IMO.

Other than that it is time to start looking for a new planet.

I'll guarantee you, Whoever gets Al Gores approval on a climate change policy will win the next election. That is a powerful message he puts out there in that video. It has enough truth backed by enough scientific evidence that it is irrefutable even for the nay sayers.

Even if you don't want to be associated with wing bat blah blah he identifies towards teh end of the movie areas to be addressed and highlights with a graph where it would go if done. From memory here so forgive sketchyness. Appliances, CO2 capture, Efficiencies, renewable energies. According to his projections addressing these particular causes of global warming with technologies which alreadt exist should get us back to 1970 levels of CO2 emmissions.

If you haven't watched An Inconvienient Truth yet I highly recommend it. The DVD even has updates as an extra.
Comments:
This is just a related current story on rising water levels, affecting Porcupine Strand, Labrador http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2006/12/28/porcupine-strand.html

I haven't heard of this beautiful site (picture) before. You have to wonder why places like these are not promoted to the public of our province, haven't heard or seen the Tourism dept. show of this place. Then again, has anyone ever made any effort to bring more attention to what the vikings called "wonderstrand"?

By the way, I read this about the terrain in Antartic: "about 98% thick continental ice sheet and 2% barren rock" http://geography.about.com/library/cia/blcantarctica.htm, also see wikipedia_antarctica. I've also read that some parts of the ice cap there may melt by a rate of up to 1-2 metres a year, but the overall ocean rise is about 2-3 mm per year.

Here's a BBC story talking about sea level rise predictions ... by 2100 it could rise between 11 cm to 77 cm.
 
Coincidentally after writing that I just saw this article on the CTV news site
Giant ice shelf breaks free from Canadian Arctic.
 
Thanks for the links Kodak.

Just confirms my suspicions that the theory of rising sea levels because of ice melt is a farce. Ice that s in the water is the same as if it were water.

When you consider that 75% of this place we call home is covered by water. To day that if the ice melts which is already in the water and is in effect already accounting for sea level is just a moon bat theory and detracts from some more of the real issues which should be concentrated on. IMO it just detracts from the real crisis by using sensationalism and moon bat theories.

I suspect why Labrador is promoted more is because we don't have the necessary infrastructure to facilitate an increase in traffic on the existing ferries. Maybe if an additional ferry were rcontracted for the increased traffic like was done with the Mose ? Cat one summer for the gulf crossing Labrador could benefit from an increase in traffic without a log jam.
 
It's not correct to say that all glacial ice is already sitting in water. In fact the glacial ice covering booth Greenland and the south pole sits over large land masses. If a portion of this ice melts it will in fact contribute to raising sea levels. In addition the reduced reflectivity of solar radiation due to a reduced ice sheets will probably result in increased physical heating of earth's land masses and amplify ice sheet melting both on and off land. That plus it will probably also lead to an increase in rain fall resulting from the evaporation.

As for the omission of a scissor lift for the temp. curve in Gore's presentation it was probably a result of editing for the film. Also it's unlikely temp would increase to the same extent as CO2. One would expect various buffering processes that would prevent a direct 1:1 relationship. I don't recall the scales used on his two curves so I can't really comment on that aspect of that particular figure.
 
EthylenGuy I didn't say all glacier ice was in the water. I was only refering to the part that is in the water as being null and void from his calculations.

I agree with you on the ice sheet reflecting the suns rays and if it were to be removed it would most certainly have a devastating effect.

Having worked and lived on ice sheets the glare of OFF ice can be very blinding and to my mind that jives.

Like you mentioned the reason the temperature rise wasn't extrapolated like the CO2 was probably because of the very reason you mention it wouldn't have the same effect which is why it was ommitted.

I'm just saying that by using these underhanded ommissions and bad science it detracts from some of the more concrete and plausible explanations and results if we don't do something.
 
From what I recall of Gore's film his argument for increases in sea level would be due mainly to the melting of land based ice sheets such as Greenland and Antarctica. This is consistant with current research.

Recent modeling suggests that if the entire Greenland ice sheet were to melt (granted an extreme case) global sea level would rise by 7m or 23ft just from the loss of that one ice mass.

So far the main rise in sea level seen (10-20cm) has been the result themal expansion of sea water as the oceans have warmed.

What concerns me the most about melting ice is the potential crazy changes in ocean currents than can result. Once that happens all bets of off.
 
We don't need to find a new planet !!
We need to clean up the one we have.
A whole lot of folks (and animals) seem to like this one....It is rather luscious. We need to fix how we use the precious Earth..not take our laziness to another poor unsuspecting planet !! Come on, people !!!
I think it is our destiny to make it right...and I think we can do it.
Yours sincerly..an Earthling.
 
We don't need to find a new planet !!
We need to clean up the one we have.
A whole lot of folks (and animals) seem to like this one....It is rather luscious. We need to fix how we use the precious Earth..not take our laziness to another poor unsuspecting planet !! Come on, people !!!
I think it is our destiny to make it right...and I think we can do it.
Yours sincerly..an Earthling.
 
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